In a bad contract trading frenzy, Memphis traded no 5 pick Kevin Love and Mike Miller plus some filler to Minnesota for no 3 pick OJ Mayo. Out of the 6 contracts traded, 4 were of the bad type. I really don’t remember any trade involving as many bad contracts, but considering who was doing the trading, this isn’t really a surprise.

As for the trade itself, it’s hard to pick a winner between Kevin McHale and Chris Wallace. The Wolves did one good thing: they got Mike Miller. But I can’t agree with John Hollinger on this one (he thinks the Wolves won the trade). I don’t think it was worth sending Mayo for Love, especially since by the trade deadline they’ll be trading Miller to a contender for an expiring and a late 1st round or 2nd round pick. Well, unless someone offers McHale a trully horible contract or 2 that he can’t resist in exchange for Mike Miller. Perhaps something like Jerome James and Jared Jeffries.

I may be biased against undersized not-so-athletic white PF, but historically, who’s the last  6′10 white PF who was worth a high draft pick ? Actually Love ain’t even 6′10. He’s 6′7.75″ without shoes and barely 6′9.5″ with some big ass shoes. So let me rephrase that. Who’s the last 6′8 white PF who was worth a high draft pick ? All the white PF/C who are any good are at least 6′11: Bogut, Biedrins, Bargnani (assuming he stops sucking soon), Kaman. The closest thing I can think of is Nick Collison, but he has a full inch over Love, better wingspan and better standing reach. Considering Collison in his best season so far produced 9.8 ppg and 9.4 reb, I don’t think that’s worth a no 5 pick.

There’s one other thing that makes me no tlike this trade for the Wolves. Here’s a quote from Hollinger himself:

Obviously the Jefferson-Love combo raises some concerns at the defensive end, since neither is especially tall or moves well laterally, but offensively they could be devastating.

This sounds familiar. Now where did I hear these same words ? Oh, right, here:

Additionally, Randolph is a slowfooted, lethargic defender. Pairing him with Curry — another slowfooted, lethargic defender — raises some obvious red flags, particularly since the Knicks defended poorly a year ago. Combining the two would create what is almost certainly the worst defensive frontcourt in basketball.

The trade may not be completed for a few days, but despite my reservations about Randolph’s defense, demeanor and salary, it has to be considered a huge coup for New York.

We all know how that “coup” turned out. Everybody was raving about how 2 low post scorers are better than one, but they’d have been better off searching the word “redundant” in the dictionary.

There is a saying about how if you don’t learn from past mistakes you’re doomed to repeat them, and looks like Kevin McHale didn’t learn shit from any of his past mistakes. And there were lots of them. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he offered Kwame Brown the MLE this summer.

Derrick Rose better be praying the Bulls listen to John Hollinger and DON’T pick him in the draft. Cause if they do, Paxson is getting ready to ruin his career Thabo Sefolosha and Tyrus Thomas style. Despite refusing to acknowledge that Rose is about to be the Bulls’ pick, Paxson already preaches patience with Rose (or Beasley).

“Deron didn’t jump into this overnight. His first year, he didn’t start most of the season. Utah had a little bit longer-range view on him. Whether it’s us or Miami, I think the same thing applies for Derrick.”

Yes, you read that right. Paxson is about to bench a 1st overall pick. Let me just say this again: Paxson is about to bench a 1st overall pick. We’re not talking about a weak draft here. This is a good draft with a few players with star potential. Has that ever happened in the history of the league ?

Has anyone before taken incompetence this far ? I mean other than Isiah Thomas, whose picture is now featured next to “incompetence” in the Encyclopædia Britannica. Paxson is so damn afraid of making a mistake or taking a risk that he’s hurting the team more than if he was to take a calculated risk. He’s so damn cautitous that I suspect he’s wiping his ass before taking a shit. I don’t think I need to mention again how when getting enough play time Tyrus and Thabo put up really nice numbers. And the high picks that did not get play time usually didn’t develop that fast, if at all. Yet, despite all historic evidence to the contrary, he’s about to commit perhaps the biggest mistake so far.

And how does he explain his plan of “we’re not going to play the rookies/young players lots of minutes until they turn 35″ ? He preaches patience. PATIENCE ?? You fucking moron, patience is what YOU should show by insisting your 1st overall pick plays at least 30 minutes per game while allowing him to learn from his mistakes. THAT is patience.

Yet instead of him showing patience with a rookie, he’s asking for patience from the fans. But he might soon find out that the fans patience has run out. Not with the players, but with his ineptitude.

At first it looked as if Skiles was the one who didn’t want to play the rookies. Than, strangely, same thing happened with Boylan, despite Paxson’s public comments about young players getting more playing time in order to develop. If the same thing happens with Vinny Del Negro, there can only be one culprit. I wonder if his contract includes bonuses depending of the number of wins in a season or making the playoffs. If it does, then the Bulls are fucked, cause they have a young team which needs to be developed but the front office guy’s interest would be to sacrifice development for a few extra meaningless (for the team in the long term) wins.

Otis Smith, also known as the guy who gave Rashard fucking Lewis 20 million per season, was offered an extension by the Orlando Magic. According to ESPN:

It was a reward for building a team that won the franchise’s first division title in 12 years, and advanced in the playoffs for the first time since that last title.

I may be alone on this, but to me mortgaging the franchise’s future for a division title should’t be rewarded with an extension. The Magic have wasted their huge salary cap last summer yet they still miss a true power forward, a true point guard and a good shooting guard. That’s 3 positions out of 5. Worst of all, the guy they spent all that money on isn’t even the 2nd best player on the team, being outplayed by Hedo Turkoglu, who’s paid about 1/3 of the money Rashard makes.

Even worse, Otis Smith’s sole good decision during the summer, the hiring of Stan Van Gundy, was  forced by Billy Donovan refusing the job, as Stan was not Otis’ first choice.

So be sure that in a few years when the Magic are way over the cap and stuck in mediocrity and when Dwight Howard will ask for a trade, I will be the first one to say “I told you so”.

Dumars finally found out what the rest of the league already knew. Namely that Flip Saunders is not a good postseason coach. His teams are usually great during the regular season but they choke in the playoffs.

Betting against history is NEVER a good thing, and that’s exactly what Dumars did. History won again as Saunders took a team that went to the finals on consecutive times - winning once - and was unable to get them past the Eastern Conference Finals. This despite having the best overall winning percentage in 2006, the best winning percentage in the East (4th overall) in 2007, and 2nd overall in 2008.

Who will the Pistons name as their next head-coach ? If they’re smart, they will pick Terry Porter despite already granting the Suns 2 interviews with him. Or they could chose from a number of young assistant coaches.

Meanwhile there already are people painting Saunders as a candidate for the Suns job. If the Suns are smart and they paid any attention in history class, they will stay clear of him. The past 24 NBA titles are shared between KC Jones, Pat Riley, Chuck Daly, Phil Jackson, Rudy Tomjanovic, Gregg Popovich and Larry Brown. That’s 7 coaches that won the title in the past 24 years. In the past 17 years, with Phil Jackson  and Gregg Popovich dominating, there were only 3 other coaches that got a title: Larry Brown (who might be considered some sort of a fluke as the Pistons met a completely dysfunctional Lakers team), Rudy T and Riley.

In other words, coaches that have been recycled over and over and over again don’t win titles. Most coaches that won a title did so in their first 4-5 years on the job, so if your goal is winning a title, you have better chances if you try with a new young coach than with someone like Flip Saunders. Or Doug Collins for that matter.

Lost on Garnett

Lost on Gasol

Lost on Kobe

Lost on D’Antoni

Making it worse, the last 2 named the Bulls as their prefered destination.

Nuff said.

Yesterday John Paxson denied the rumor* that Larry Brown was a candidate to become the Bulls’ next head coach. Said Paxson: “I have not begun the process (of evaluating coaching options for next season)“.

John Paxson doing what he does best: standing

So what the fuck ARE you doing then ?? You’re not evaluating coaching options, you sure as hell ain’t discussing trades (cause if you were, the Bulls might have had Kobe AND Gasol). The only thing you’re doing is denying that you’re doing anything. That’s gotta take like what ? 5 minutes per day ? What the hell are you doing to improve the Bulls the rest of the time ? Sitting on uncle Jerry’s lap** and counting his money ? Or did he hire you just part time so he can save some more cash ? At least that would help explain your activity (or lack thereof).

How else can you explain overpaying for Ben Wallace and trading Chandler for PJ Brown and JR Smith and then letting PJ expire without using his contract to trade for a star player ? Not to mention banishing JR Smith for two 2nd round draft picks. Incidentally, JR Smith (who may be certifiably insane), just dropped 8 tree-pointers in a game. Are you trying to tell me he’s not better than Chris “can’t make an open shot to save his own life” Duhon ? Especially on a team starving for offense.

* the rumor was published by the Philadelphia Inquirer, so you know it was Larry Brown (who’s currently a part of the 76ers organization) that planted it in order to test the ground and see if he has a chance to land the Bulls job. He’d love to clear his name (by taking a team and drastically improving it) and stick it to the Knicks. So the Bulls are perfect for his goals: they are clearly underachieving this season, so improving them would be easy for him, and they play the Knicks 4 times a year.

** for those of you who don’t know who I’m talking about, that’s Jerry Reinsdorf, who may be even greedier than Donald Sterling of the Clippers (and that’s saying something)

Since I wrote the post on Antawn Jamison I’ve been thinking about this “contract year” phenomenon. Seems like most of the players in the NBA suddenly find themselves extra motivated when they are in a contract year. I guess it’s easy to stop caring and play disinterested when your money is guaranteed. But sometimes the difference is eye-popping. And it’s not an isolated thing. There are many players who got paid a shitload of money after just one good season. Sometimes after one good half a season or even less (Jerome James comes to mind). And right after they got their money, they reverted to their donkey balls sucking ways.

Here are some examples:

• Erick Dampier
• Michael Olowokandi
• Bobby Simmons
• Larry Hughes
• Tim Thomas
• Rashard Lewis

But how can GMs fall for this time after time after time ? Are they really that stupid ? Well, it seems they are. So they need a tool to tell them a certain player is playing this well only because he’s got his sights set on a new fat contract. So who’s best at creating tools that analyze statistical information ? Well, none other then John Hollinger. He’s got the PER, formulas to predict the evolution in the NBA of college players and foreign players (they require ESPN Insider), the playoff odds and is pretty much the stats guru amongst the well known NBA analysts.

I think John Hollinger would be the best to figure out a formula to red-flag players who are “coincidentally” playing the best ball of their career in their contract years. Such a task may seem easy at first, after all guys like Dampier or Olowokandi are so easy to spot only someone like Kevin McHale would think they gonna keep playing like that or even improve on that. But then there are guys like Caron Butler who just had his best season in his young career in the 2004-2005 season. He then signed a 5 year, 46 million contract and he kept improving his game and this season he’s basically playing at superstar level while leading Washington to an unexpected 4th place in the Eastern conference.

How to differentiate between players who are only playing better because they look for more money in the summer and players who are going to keep working hard and improve on that after getting their new contract ? Well, here are a few things that should be taken into account when deciding if the improvement is legit or not:

• the improvement must be of at least 10-20%: the increase in production usually comes in points per game and rebounds. For example Rashard Lewis’ rebounding last season went up to 6.6 per game despite the fact that it went from 6.5 in 2003-04 to 5.5 in 2004-05 to 5.0 in 2005-06. That’s a 32% increase. He also had an increase of 11.44% in scoring from 20.1 to 22.4. It helps spot a contract year if the player is setting career bests, especially the 2 categories mentioned above. A prime example of this is Erick Dampier, whose rebounding almost doubled (from 6.6 to 12) and whose scoring increased by about 50% (from 8.2 to 12.3). He also had a career best (at the time) in FG%.
• there is spike in rebounding: unlike scoring which requires talent and plays getting called for you, rebounding takes first and foremost the will to go get the ball. You have to want that rebound more then anyone else on the court. So a player who is suddenly getting more rebounds in his contract year must have some extra motivation to go for all those rebounds. Unfortunately that motivation will evaporate before the ink dries on his new contract.
• there is a spike in FTA: a spike in FTA shows the player was more aggressive then usual. Just like with rebounding, once his motivation is gone, so will his aggressiveness. Here are a bunch of players who scored big contracts after a good contract year and their FTA for their contract year (in bold), a few years before that and the year after: Larry Hughes (3.6, 2.8, 5.5, 7.4, 5.4), Bobby Simmons (1.0, 3.0, 3.6, 2.7), Rashard Lewis (4.5, 3.4, 4.0, 5.5, 5.3, 3.4) - in this case Rashard may have tried to get an extension in the previous year which would explain the 5.5; as soon as he got his contract though he’s back to 3.4, Erick Dampier (2.9, 2.9, 2.7, 4.5, 3.9)

• player must be over 26 or have at least 6 years of experience: it’s expected from young players to improve on their stats, so if a young player does NOT improve his stats even in a contract year, or if the improvement is hardly noticeable, it probably means he reached his ceiling and the GM should not count on much improvement of the player’s per minute stats in the future

• numbers must be adjusted on a per minute base and take into account the pace at which the team is playing: scoring 15 points per game for Phoenix, Denver or Golden State is nowhere near the same as scoring 15 per game for Detroit or San Antonio

• the improvement must come against a trend set over the last few years: in the example above, Lewis’ rebounding was going south before his contract year. Naturally, after signing his huge contract in the summer of 2007, he’s currently averaging 5.1 rebounds per game. Sometimes players have a couple of good years, the contract year and the one before. Most likely explained by them trying to get a reach extension, and when they don’t get it they play even harder the next year for a new contract. For example Larry Hughes had a good year in 2003-04 with the Wizards. His scoring went up from 12.8 to 18.8, his rebounding went from 4.6 to 5.3. But the next season, in his contract year, he played even better recording 22.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, raising his assists from 2.4 to 4.7 and his steals from 1.6 to 2.9. As a result, he’s not able to steal the Cavaliers’ money. About 12 million per season. This requirement should filter out players like Caron Butler whose improvement continued a trend, a trend that kept going even after he signed his new contract.

• the improvement can not be (fully) explained by increased playing time, faster pace of the team, playing in a new system and/or for a new coach: Bobby Simmons received about 50% more playing time during his contract year and he upped his scoring from 7.8 to 16.4. That’s a 110% improvement and it can’t really be explained just by the increase in playtime. From 12.73 points per 40 minutes he went to 17.59. After signing his contract, he went back to 15.86 points per 40 minutes.
• the improvement can not be explained by increased role on the team (for example as a result of an injury to a star player): in case of Antawn Jamison his extra 1.5 points per game can be explained by his bigger role in the offense with Arenas out. But that doesn’t explain his career best 10.4 rebounds per game which represent a 30% increase over the 8 rebounds per game he got the previous season.

Now that the foundation is settled, is up to Mr Hollinger to come up with a formula that will let everyone know if a player will keep up his level of play or not after signing a contract. And, of course, it will be up to the GMs of the league to use that information for the benefit of their teams. But they won’t be able to say they were not warned or that they did not see that coming.

With the Bulls the second biggest disappointment of the season (thanks only to Miami and their elite suckage), it’s time to ask: “What the hell happened ?”. The blame can not rest (as Skiles tried to place it before getting a nice pink slip from Santa) with the players alone. Even if they’re not playing at their best of abilities, it’s the coach’s job to get the best out of them. And if the players suck, well, it’s the GM that drafted/traded for them. So in the end, John Paxson is ultimately responsible for the way the team plays.

The 2 moves Paxson was most criticized for were the signing of Ben Wallace and the trading of Chandler for the contract of PJ Brown. Of course he also traded Curry away, but there were valid concerns about his health and so far the Bulls seem to be winning that trade even if Tyrus Thomas and Noah have not yet reached their full potential. If they do, it will go down as another major screw-up by Isiah. He also gave up too soon on JR Smith, but with Hinrich, Gordon, Duhon and, of course, coach favorite extraordinaire Adrian Griffin in front of him in the rotation, he wouldn’t have had the opportunity that he had in Denver.

But the problem is not a certain trade but the lack of a clear plan. The question that John Paxson did not have an answer for was: “When are the Bulls supposed to win ?“. Once you have the answer for this question, you can act accordingly and make the necessary moves to help you reach your goal. To cut it short, there are 2 options for a team: Win now or Build for the future.

If you are building for the future, that means trading away whatever players you have that might have some value for teams that are contending for expiring contracts and as many draft picks as possible, especially from teams that you think will end up with really bad records. If you are in “Win now” mode, then you’ll have to sacrifice the immediate and medium term future for short term gains. It’s a risk, but a risk that is worth taking when you’re after the big prize. It’s something Riley has been doing in Miami more than once, and in the end he hit the jackpot when he traded for Shaq and got a title. Now Miami’s future is messed up, but the organization and fans sure don’t regret the trade.

When Paxson signed Ben Wallace it seemed to be a sign that the Bulls were entering the “Win now” mode. The trade for PJ Brown which was in fact a big expiring was one more step in that direction. The next logical step would have been packing one or 2 of the young players with Brown’s contract in a trade for a legit superstar. But Paxson stopped just short of that. Brown’s contract expired and the Bulls were left with little flexibility in the event they wanted to go after Kobe/Garnett in the summer of 2007. Paxson’s indecision left the Bulls with a team that is not really good to contend and not really bad to get much better through the draft unless a superstar falls in their lap midway through the 1st round.

Paxson’s indecision was again on display in the summer when he chose not to fire Skiles and look for a replacement although the signs of Skiles being tuned out were already on display. Furthermore, Skiles substitution patterns, Larry Brown like love for veterans who were hardly better than the rookies whose playtime they were eating and in your face attitude that the players were bound to get tired of should have made it clear to Paxson that Skiles needed to go. Instead of having to do it at Christmas time in a Grinch like manner, he could have done it in the summer. He would have had time to pick up a replacement coach instead of basically wasting 1 year with an interim. As an added bonus, this summer there was one coach who was available who was young, underrated and would have come cheaper than a big name coach: Stan Van Gundy. This is the guy that has the Magic on the 3rd place in the Eastern Conference. Also, Rick Adelman was available and even though he never won a title, he took 2 teams to the finals and his teams usually perform very well.

Of course, the biggest non-action of John Paxson was not trading for Kobe when he was available. His apparent insistence of making Deng untouchable is borderline retarded. And now the values of both Gordon and Deng had to suffer because of the Bulls horrendous start and their own poor play in the first part of the season. So much about selling high. Maybe Paxson talked his own players up to the other GMs in order to increase their value that in the end he convinced himself they were so much better than they really are.

Another mistake was bringing in Joe Smith. It’s not that he’s not been playing well. But right now with Wallace, Smith, Thomas, Noah, Gray and also Nocioni getting time at the 4 cause Deng is taking most of the minutes at the 3, there are too many players competing for minutes at PF and C. Unfortunately Wallace has been getting entitlement minutes despite very poor play. Normally he’d be the odd man out, with Noah and Smith starting and Tyrus Thomas the 1st big off the bench. Nocioni could spend minutes at the 3 (as a back-up to Deng) or 4 (as the undersized chucker that he is) depending on match-ups. Gray should also see some minutes when his size is needed.

Right now the Bulls are stuck with an average team, with a Skiles clone repeating the same message of love for the veterans, with the huge contract of Ben Wallace and his rapidly decaying corpse, a log jam at PF/C and with a bunch of tweeners at the G spots. There are not enough minutes do develop the young players as Jim Boylan insists of using the veterans in hope the team will win just enough games to make the playoffs (if only to get booted in the 1st round) so he can have a chance to get the full time job as head coach. Unfortunately for him, his best chance of making the playoffs and getting the head coaching job might be playing the young players. The fact that he’s letting them rot on the bench while playing Ben Wallace 40 minutes per game so he can get 5 rebounds only proves he’s not a good enough coach to get a head coaching job in the NBA.

And all of this because Paxson did not have the balls to go after Kobe and he fell in love with his own players. Players who may force a sign and trade during the summer after letting it be known that they felt disrespected by the way the Bulls organization conducted the “negotiations” for their new contracts. Well, Paxson will likely have at least this season and the next to fix things. Which is to say the Bulls better be back in contention the next season, so this summer will be crucial. If he keeps shying off from taking chances, it will draw the ire of the fans and, eventually, ownership. And if he can’t find the trade that can really improve the Bulls, he may have to go back to a rebuilding period, especially if Deng and Gordon force their way out. If the Bulls will have to try the lottery again in order to get a superstar, Paxson may find again he woke up too late and missed on a draft supposed to be full of talented players.

Here’s what the Bulls should do. Considering the team has been awful this season, fighting for a playoff spot is pointless, since it will most likely lead to a 1st round sweep. It’s not like the Bulls have any hope of coming out of the East. Since making the playoffs will not help the team much, it might be a better idea to tank the season. The Bulls could package Wallace with Deng and maybe Gordon or Hinrich in order to get an expiring and some picks. Also Joe Smith may be an interesting target for teams looking for help in the front court, especially since he has been playing well and his contract is more than decent. With Wallace, Joe Smith, and 2 or all 3 of Deng, Gordon and Hinrich gone, the Bulls could play a lot of Sefolosha, Tyrus Thomas, Noah and Gray so when summer comes they have a better idea of what kind of players they have.

And if playing the youngs will result in a lot of losses (as Boylan seems to think), then the Bulls will benefit from a high pick in the draft that may just be the superstar they’ve been missing. Preferably a superstar PG. A strong argument for this is what Chris Paul is managing to do right now: leading the Hornets to the best record in the West, ahead of the 3 powerhouses that ruled the conference for the past years (Suns, Mavs, Spurs). And the Hornets weren’t even projected to make the playoffs by most analysts. But as we’ve seen with Jason Kidd and Steve Nash before, a great PG can take a team to the next level all by himself.

On the other hand, if the Bulls give the young players a lot of minutes and win enough games to make the playoffs, then Boylan needs to be fired ASAP and never EVER given any kind of job in the NBA. And Paxson will have some cap-space and (presumably) mid to late picks to work with. Considering Gilbert Arenas will be a free agent, a team with Arenas, Sefolosha, Thomas and Noah would provide enough defense and rebounding to allow Gilbert to focus on providing the offense. And if the Bulls can swap Nocioni for the Suns’ Diaw and maybe in the process obtain the pick Atlanta owes them, Diaw could provide play-making from the SF position, taking the role of point-forward that Pippen used to play. This is just a scenario, but for sure there are many ways the Bulls team can be improved. It’s up to John Paxson to do it though. But if he’s not up to the job, then he’d better start packing his bags, cause he’s gotta go.