Archive for the ‘Player analysis’ Category

Now I know how Ric Bucher felt

Now I know how Ric Bucher must have felt after guaranteeing that Kobe won’t play another game in a Lakers uniform only to watch him return to the Lakers and reach the finals.

 

After guaranteeing that Marion, Brand and pretty much everyone else except for Arenas and Maggette will NOT opt-out, Elton Brand and - surprise, surprise - Baron Davis decide to actually opt-out of their rich contracts. I gotta say that stings a little bit.

 

The question is why did they do this ? Why now ? Next summer a lot more teams (Hawks, Cavs, Warriors, Clippers, perhaps even the Lakers, Grizzlies, Heat, Wolves, Sixers, Sonics, Raptors) might have some or even lots of cap space. This summer is a buyer’s season. Unrestricted FA won’t find too many teams with cap space willing to go into a bidding war. Their best chance remains to either sign with their teams or force a S&T, but that is more complicated to do.

 

 

“It preserves options to make the team better,” Falk said. “Clearly, if Elton decided he wanted to simply max out the dollars, he would have stayed in the deal, had a monster year, and a lot more teams will have cap room next year.”

 

I guess Elton Brand is trying to have his cake and eat it too by not really losing money while forcing the Clippers to make some moves to become better. He clearly wasn’t paying attention in history class, cause if he was, he’d know that a) the Clippers suck; they always have and always will and b) if you want to play for a winner, you don’t opt-out, you ask for a trade; if necessary, you do it through the media. It worked for Kobe, it worked for McGrady, it worked for Garnett - even though technically Garnett didn’t ask for a trade, I think McHale finally traded him when he started fearing for his life after watching Garnett in the eyes at the end of the 3rd consecutive season in which the Wolves missed the playoffs.

 

Now that Elton Brand has opted-out, wouldn’t the Wizards have been better off not signing Jamison yet and offering him in a S&T for Brand ? I know Arenas said he wants Jamison back, but Elton Brand is much better than Jamison and his game would have fit the Wizards better, giving them an inside weapon and opening things up for Arenas’ 3p shot. Brand would have also helped their defense a lot.

 

Brand’s best option to win probably remains Miami. A post on TrueHoop suggested a trade (S&T Brand for Beasley, Haslem, Banks) to get Brand in Miami, but I think that would be too much from Miami’s point of view. Brand for Beasley, Banks and Blount would probably be enough for the Clippers. They are the Clippers after all. The Clippers would have to eat the bad contracts of Blount and Banks, but they need a PG anyway, and next summer Blount becomes an expiring. The main thing, though, is that they’d get a young stud back (some might say with superstar potential), who’ll be playing for cheap for the next 4 years. And Sterling likes cheap.

 

For the Heat this would turn them into contenders. Marion will be playing for a contract so he’ll be on his best behavior while busting his ass on the court, especially on D, Wade and Brand will open things up for each other and give opposing Ds fits. Haslem could be a nice 6th man. And we can figure the Heat will manage to round out their roster with veterans looking for a ring, just like Boston did last summer. For example Adonal Foyle would be a good pick-up as a defensive center, allowing the Heat not to play Zo that much. James Jones could be am option as a 3p shooter to spread the floor. And so on.

 

 

As for Baron Davis, despite being the same age as Elton Brand, and perhaps just as good, he was considered far less likely to opt-out because he might not draw the same interest as Brand and because he had to leave more money on the table. The reason Baron Davis might not draw the same interest is because he’s considered injury prone (after playing all 82 games in his first 3 years, he averaged 56 games for 5 seasons, before playing again all 82 games last season, compared to Elton Brand who averaged 76 games per season for his career), and as a general principle big men are more valued than guards.

 

Some reports claim he’s not getting along with Nellie, but Davis insists he wants to remain with the Warriors. In this case, I can only assume he must have figured out that after having a career year he was highly unlikely to repeat this performance, so he’d better milk it as much as he could. There really is no other explanation I can think of if he really wants to stay with the Warriors and he’s not pushing them to make moves to get better, like Elton Brand is trying to do with the Clippers.

It all stops right here

 

All the comparisons stop right here. It’s over. Not that it ever was that close anyway. Kobe Bryant is NOT the next Michael Jordan. He’s not better than Michael Jordan. He’s not as good as Michael Jordan. In fact, he’s nowhere close to being as good as Jordan was.

 

And if the staggering amount of statistical data was not enough, Kobe’s choke job in these finals, combined with the lose gun job from 2004 have shown that he is not able to dominate the game and impose his will on the outcome the way Jordan did. At least not when it really matters - on the big stage: Jordan played in 6 finals and got 6 titles and 6 finals MVPs. So far Kobe played 5 finals, won 3 (as the side kick) and lost 2 (1 as the man) and got no finals MVP. So until Kobe proves himself in at least a couple of finals, this conversation is over.

Back breaker

He will do what it takes to help his team win, including breaking your back with a 3 or with a cheap-shot. Opposing fans hate him, but he’s the kind of role player you like to have on your team: meet James Posey. Just don’t get too close to him or he might draw an offensive foul on you.

 

While everyone is talking about Pierce’s Finals MVP, Garnett’s DPOY and Ray Allen’s record tying seven 3-pointers, it’s time to give props to a guy who plays more villain than hero: James Posey.  At various times during the finals Garnett, Pierce and Ray Allen failed to deliver in the crunch. But he kept stepping up and making big plays. He was completely unfazed by the importance of the moment - a thing that comes with experience and with having already won a title (with the Heat in 2006).

 

 

It seemed that every time the Celtics needed a back breaking 3, Posey was lurking in his corner. Except for game 1, he was 58% from the 3p line. Pierce and Ray Allen got a lot of credit for their defense on Kobe, but people forget Posey played great defense on Kobe as well. His team defense was just as good as he kept drawing charges when the Lakers tried to take the ball to the rim. When the Celtics fumbled the ball (usually on a defensive rebound) he always was in the right place to secure the ball and avoid a costly turnover. In fact, except for game 1 when he played poor and had 2 TO, he only had 0.6 TO per game.

 

True, many times he acts like a thug - just ask the Bulls fans, he cheapshoted Hinrich, Deng and Tyrus Thomas. Also on most of the offensive fouls he draws he’s actually undercutting the offensive player and he should be just called for the blocking foul instead. He does flop but to be fair, he doesn’t attempt to “sell the foul” a la Ginobili, Parker or Vujacic. The guy is old school tough: he does hit others, but when he gets hit, he keeps playing like nothing happened.

 

Overall with the big 3s, the defense, the little things that he does to help his team win and with the toughness that sometimes spills into thuggery, Posey reminds me a lot of Robert Horry. And after winning a title with the Heat, he’s now with the Celtics who may have 2-3 years of high level play in them, so expect to see his 2 colors mouth guard a lot in the playoffs and don’t be surprised if he ends up with 4 or 5 rings won with 3 or 4 different teams.

Paul Pierce prediction update

I have predicted that as a result of being taunted by Al Horford at the end of game 3, Paul Pierce will try to have a monster game in game 4, and fail miserably. And, lo and behold, Pierce didn’t disappoint. He finished with 5-14 FG, 3 TO and 5 PF, and his Celtics lost. He also shot 50%  (4-8) from the FT line.

 

Truth be told, he started out very well, shooting efficiently (he finished 4-7 from the 3p line) and at the end he had 7 reb and 5 ast. But in a playoff game he shouldn’t let his frustration boil over and commit silly fouls that put him in foul trouble and keep him out of the game. And where was his vaunted perimeter defense ? Atlanta’s perimeter players had their way with the Celtics’ D: Joe Johnson was 14-24, Bibby 5-8, Josh Smith 8-16.

Time to move Josh Howard

I used to like him. But watching him during this series against the Hornets, I got the feeling he’s the piece that doesn’t fit. Usually offenses orchestrated by Kidd are very fluid, with a lot of ball (and player) movement and very few 1 on 1 plays. Yet every time the ball got to Josh Howard, the offense just stopped in its tracks. Basically every single time he got the ball he stopped, took a long look at the court, then started dribbling followed by an attempt to take his opponent 1 on 1.

 

Not only is he disrupting the Mavs team-offense. That would be sorta OK if at least he managed to score on a large part of all those 1 on 1 actions. But his “best” shooting of the series came in game 2: 5 of 16 from the field. Overall his shooting percentage for the series is an atrocious 25.86%, and he only made 1 of the 8 three pointers he took. At least he’s been pulling down some boards (6.5 per game) and going to the line (6.25 FTA per game) and made most of them (80% FT). But his defense has been questionable as well. In retrospect, Dirk’s comments after game 4: “You have to make shots to win in this league”, might have been, at least partially, directed at Howard. Not that Dirk deserves no blame of his own, as this is his team, and he’s supposed to carry them offensively as well as defensively, at least in terms of effort if not defensive prowess.

 

And just when you thought things couldn’t go any worse for Howard, he managed to find a foot big enough to fit his mouth, so he openly acknowledged he smokes pot. But only during the offseason. Or at least so he says. Now, I don’t have anything against pot. I happen to think that if pot is banned, so should alcohol and tobacco. And probably a few other things, as well. I also happen to believe in free speech and in speaking out. But when you’re in the spotlight especially when you’ve been under performing, it’s usually better not to say things that could be used against you.

 

So after the Hornets put them out of their misery in game 5, the Mavs will have to regroup. Avery will probably be the first to go. But Cuban should not stop here. Howard should be dangled as trade bait in front of every GM in the league that has something nice to offer. Which kinda means everyone but the Knicks’ GM.  Howard put up nice stats, and he’s just in his prime. He won’t get much (if any) better than this, and this would be the best time to trade him. And the pot smoking admission shouldn’t have hurt his stock much, if any, cause most GMs come from the ranks of the NBA, so they know most of the players do in fact smoke weed.

 

And once you start changing the roster, why stop in the middle of the road  ? I think it might just be time to trade Dirk too. With Howard and Dirk you might get a couple of players like Jermaine O’Neal and Jason Richardson or Gerald Wallace plus a couple of extra pieces. With Kidd running the show, these 2 might fit better than Josh Howard and Dirk. At least while they stay healthy. Jermaine would provide the defense Dirk can’t provide while Kidd will help him get easy baskets on offense. And the SG/SF they might get could be the 3rd piece in a team that could follow the blueprint of the Celtics: 3 stars that fit together, surrounded by cheap, but able role players.

Bold prediction of the night: Pierce will mess up game 4

In game 3, Horford had a couple of choice words for Pierce towards the end of the game (courtesy of Odenized):

 

 

Some Most would say that this wasn’t really smart of Horford - taunting a superstar - as he might drop 40 or even 50 on the Hawks the next game. Well, first of all, Pierce has no place in the same discussion with Lebron or Kobe. Second, according to some website who’s address I forgot, this was just Horford’s reply to something Pierce started:

 

Horford made a shot at the end of the game and while Pierce was laying on the court, Horford shouted down at him and shook his fingers at him. During the closing moments of game 2, when things got heated and a lil testy, Pierce predicted and said this to Horford: “Ten stacks ($10,000) we sweep your ass!”

Horford said: “My heart don’t pump kool-aid! Imma be here…..remember that! I aint going no where!”. So when you saw Horford jawing with Pierce tonight…he was saying: “F— you…pay me!! It aint over!”

 

And it’s gotta be true. Cause I read it on the Internet and as we all know, everything you read on the Internet is true. And cause it sounds just like the kind of crap Pierce would pull.

 

So in the aftermath of game 3, I think Pierce will try to have a “statement game”. I fully expect him to jack up a ton of bad shots in an attempt to put up a lot of points and end up with a horrendous FG% and a bunch of turnovers, hurting his team in the process. The Celtics are good enough to survive a really bad game by Pierce, but he might just play selfish enough to help the Hawks even the series.

 

If he doesn’t do that, well, color me surprised. It would mean that a lot of Garnett’s team oriented attitude rubbed off on him, and if so, for this alone Garnett should receive the MVP.

Dirk Nowitzki vs David West

I meant to say something about the David West - Dirk Nowitzki incident in the 1st game of the New Orleans - Dallas series, where David West touched Dirk on the face in a threatening manner.

 

 

Most people agree that Dirk should not allow this to happen and the least he could do would be to push West’s hand away from his face. Old school guys would have done more than that. Had that been Barkley, West would still be picking his teeth off the floor. Of course, there are others who think that Dirk did well to control his emotions and not risk a technical or an ejection. Well, an ejection to Dirk sure wouldn’t help the Mavs, but then neither does letting the Hornets know they are a bunch of pussies.

 

So here’s what I think. We all agree that Dirk’s been sleeping in a tub of fabric softener for way too long. That’s not to say he’s not a nice guy, but to win in the NBA sometimes you need a nasty side that he just doesn’t have. Avery Johnson should know that and should have had someone protect Dirk. Just like Oakley was Jordan’s bodyguard in Jordan’s first years in Chicago. And Dirk needs a bodyguard more than MJ did.

 

In the video, you can see Bass really close to Dirk and West. But the first to intervene are the refs. In fact, they are the ones taking West’s hand off Dirk’s face. Now, correct me if I’m wrong: Brandon Bass is a role player, and he’s pretty tall and athletic. If, say, Bass and West were ejected, that would hurt the Hornets more. So why the hell wasn’t Bass up in West’s grill ? Slap his hand away, give him a push, talk some crap to him, call his momma a cheap ho, whatever. Look to start something to get West (and probably yourself) ejected and help your team, or at least just have your teammate’s back. Instead you just stay there and watch ? WTF ?

 

One last thing: remember how Devean George cost Cuban an extra 11 million or so because of his refusal to be included in the trade ? Well, let’s just say that George could have been used to justify some of that amount. If he goes in and punks David West and gets suspended, I doubt the Mavs would be missing his 4 ppg and 25% FG much.

Who the hell is Ramon Sessions ?

 

who is ramon sessions

 

I mean really, WHO IS HE ? I mean other than the 56th selection in the 2007 draft who was sent to the D-League and didn’t play a minute  in the NBA till March (when he got 4, 9, 6, 6, 7, 14 and 15 minutes) for one of the sorriest teams in the NBA. But at least the Bucks did one thing right (other than drafting him): come April, knowing they were out of playoff contention, they decided to see what they got in their young player and gave Ramon over 37 minutes per game.

 

Note to John Paxson and Jimbo the Clown Boylan: THIS (37 minutes per game) is what playing the young players means, not the pathetic 17 minutes Tyrus got, even after huge games. But I’ll deal with these 2 clowns a little bit later.

 

Now let’s get back to Ramon Sessions. As soon as he started getting minutes,  he started making noise. First he ruined Gilbert Arenas long awaited comeback by hitting the game-winner on a buzzer beater over Arenas’ outstretched arm no less, after Arenas seemed to have given the Wizards the win with 2 clutch free throws. And now, he put up 20 points and 24 assists against the Bulls.

 

The 24 assists are a record for the Bucks franchise, which is even more impressive considering that Oscar Robertson used to play for the Bucks.  To put things into perspective:

  • the record for assists in one game is 30 (belongs to Scott Skiles).
  • John Stockton’s career high was 28 assists
  • Magic Johnson’s career high was 24 assists
  • Steve Nash’s career high is 22 assists
  • starting with the 1986-87 season there were only 10 other games where a player had 24 or more assists: John Stockton (26, 24, 27 and 28), Magic Johson (24 twice), Scott Skiles (30), Jason Kidd (25), Kevin Johnson (25) and Nate McMillan (25). That right there is pretty good company for Ramon Sessions.

It remains to be seen if this says more about Ramon Sessions’ potential or about the Bulls suckiness. But so far it looks like the Bucks found another 2nd round gem, after Michael Redd, who was first underrated, then overrated and then he became overpaid.

Fuckin’ Ben Wallace, man

In his first game after being traded from the Bulls, this mofo shows a pulse. Not only that, but he gets his 3rd double double of the season (and first since the 3rd of January). Furthermore, but his 12 points (season high, by the way) came on 5-6 shooting. True, he benefited from Lebron James’ presence and his passes, but still. He showed much more heart in this one game than in the entire season with the Bulls.

 

ben wallace roid rage

 

It’s obvious now that the Bulls were his rebound relationship. You know, to help him get over the Pistons quickly, he jumped into the Bulls lap, although he was clearly not happy to be with them and didn’t care much for them. And as it happens with rebound relationships, it didn’t last too long. Now that he managed to get over the Pistons, he is ready to move on. So he gets jiggy with the Cavaliers. Fuckin’ Ben Wallace, man.

 

Do I sound bitter ? Suppose so. But my beef is less with Ben Wallace and more with the Bulls organization itself. When they saw “the body” had morphed into “the corpse”, they should have just cryogenized his ass on the bench. They had no problem banishing Tim Thomas and he had a similarly huge contract. So why not show some consistency in applying your policies and ban the Monica of Headband-Gate from games and practices as well ? Tell him to sit his ass home and wait for his checks. And then wipe your ass with them before sending them and hope his afro falls over his face one night and suffocates him so you can take his salary off the books.

 

But looking at the picture above, I can’t help but wonder if perhaps there is an explanation on why Skiles and then Boylan were playing this guy 30+ minutes a game despite him sucking ass. I think Skiles and Boylan were absolutely terrified that he might go on a ‘roid fueled rage and eat them alive. What they didn’t know and what his game made obvious was that by the time he started playing for the Bulls he was no longer on ‘roids, but on Prozac.

Rashard Lewis is an underpaid DPOY candidate

Well, not really. Let me start by saying that I have a man crush on Dwight Howard, and I love watching him play. Which means I kinda have to watch Rashard play as well. And each time I watch him play I wonder what part of his game made Otis Smith think believe that he was worth over 20 million per year. Since he’s a good scorer, but not a great scorer or a great passer/play maker, I suppose it’s his defense that must have impressed Otis Smith.

 

In fact, his elite defense is what got him on the next installment of Better Basketball’s “Better Defense” DVD. It’s a 3 part series talking about defense, blocking shots and rebounding (focusing on defensive rebounding). Here are the covers:

 

rashard lewis - better rebounding

 

rashard lewis - better rebounding

 

rashard lewis - better shot blocking

 

 

Ok, enough joking. All season long I’ve been hearing how poor Rashard (pun intended) is having such a hard time on D cause he’s a SF who has to guard PF. Can you PLEASE cut out the crap ? He’s 6′10. Most of the starting PF’s in the league are 6′10 or shorter*. Dude is tall and sufficiently athletic to be able to defend opposing PF’s. He should bulk up a little, but I suppose those damn weights are so heavy and you have to lift them so many times to gain some muscle that he just gave up. If he ever tried. I mean …. those contracts are guaranteed, baby. Guaranteed. That means you don’t need to pump iron to get the money. All you need to do is to be able to pick up a check.

 

And his lack of defense is hurting the Magic a lot. For example, against Toronto when Bosh scored 40 points on like 138% FG shooting, the Magic could have used a tall athletic defender to slow Bosh down. They had to try to use Howard on Bosh at times, but this was not a good thing, cause Bosh has the range to shoot long 2s and if Howard would have tried to close in and take his jump shot away, Bosh would use his quickness to go to the basket.

 

Rashard would have been the best option against Bosh had his defense been even passable. It’s not like Bosh was taller than him, or bigger. They both are 6′10 and weigh 230 lbs. Not like Bosh could have easily shot over Rashard or he could have pushed him under the basket. But defense is 90% about effort, and Rashard is just not willing to put in the effort.

 

So it’s a shame that this joker (Otis Smith) saddled the Magic with one of the most horrendous contracts in the league’s history. This absolutely killed their flexibility and now, when they need a true PG to get Howard the ball and a PF who can play D and rebound well, they don’t have the means to get them, except if they get lucky and find them with late-1st or 2nd round picks or if they manage to get them with the MLE. In the end Rashard’s contract may lead to Howard’s departure from Orlando, at which point Otis Smith better go hide in Antarctica, cause Magic fans may not take very well yet another disappointment after Shaq’s departure and Grant Hill’s failed 7 seasons with them.

 

* here’s the list: Boozer (6′9), Jamison (6′9), Reggie Evans (6′8), Chris Bosh (6′10), Gooden (6′10), Ben Wallace (6′7, listed at 6′9), Josh Smith (6′9), Shawn Marion (6′7), Kenyon Martin (6′9), Ryan Gomes (6′7), Chris Wilcox (6′10), Harrington (6′10), Amare (6′10), Scola (6′9)