The Lakers offensive problems
Despite starting out as favorites, except for the 1st half of game 4, the Lakers have been unable to play their game against the Celtics. More specifically the league’s 3rd best offense (when accounting for pace) found itself in trouble against the league’s best defense. The Lakers defense was good, holding the Celtics 3p below their regular season average, but the Lakers themselves only managed to score 90.5ppg compared to the 108.5 they scored during the regular season or the 99.2 scored during the playoffs.
The Lakers offense ineptitude is a little bit baffling considering they have the best scorer in the game, a center that can score and enough shooters to keep a defense honest, and they are coached by arguably the best coach ever. Of course a lot of credit should be given to the Celtics D, but how did they manage to basically shut down the Lakers when the Lakers have so many offensive weapons ? That’s even more staggering considering that the Spurs, the 3rd best defensive team in the league, were nowhere near as good as the Celtics in defending the Lakers. The Lakers-Spurs series was also a low scoring one, but this was mainly because the Spurs slowed down the pace as much as they could, while the Celtics like to push the ball on offense to generate easy points. So what are the Celtics doing different from the Spurs ?
From the Lakers role players, only Radmanovic and Farmar have lower FG% against the Lakers than against the Spurs - and as a result they got less minutes . The rest of Kobe’s supporting cast has noticeably better FG% compared to the Spurs series: Gasol .511 against the Celtics up from .446 against the Spurs, Odom .500 up from .404, Fisher .429 up from .375, Vujacic .406 up from .303. The Spurs defended the 3p line fiercely. The Celtics, perhaps not so much: the Lakers role players (other than Fisher) are also shooting better from the 3p line - including Radmanovic and Farmar: Vujacic .438 up from .316, Radmanovic .389 up from .273, Farmar .556 up from .417. One might think of pointing to Odom and/or Gasol and blame them for the Lakers ineptitude, but their numbers are very close to what they averaged against the Spurs.
So if the shooters are shooting better and the inside players are the same what’s killing the Lakers ? The short answer would be: Kobe Bryant. After all, he’s the superstar, the leader, and the responsibility is all his. And his numbers have dropped compared to the Spurs series: points per game down to 26.8 from 29.2 (despite getting more minutes per game), turnovers up to 3.25 from 2.4, FG% down to .432 from .533, 3p% down to .200 from .333 and even the FT% is down to .784 from .909.
This drop is caused because unlike the Spurs who let Bowen single cover Kobe a lot, the Celtics are doubling Kobe a lot. Kobe was a scorer and passer in the first 2 rounds (over 33 ppg, with 6.3 and 7.2 assists). Against the Spurs, he was more of a scorer than a passer (29.2 ppg, only 3.8 ast). The Celtics took away more of his scoring forcing him to be a passer (26.8 ppg, 6.3 ast).
But how can a defense afford to double him so much when the Lakers supposedly have a low post presence and shooters to spread the floor ? Well, perhaps Gasol is not really that much of a low post presence. He is in fact a very good offensive player - someone who scored over 20 ppg over the course of an entire season while shooting over 50% is no slouch. But the numbers might be a little misleading. He is a very opportunistic player (not a bad thing) so many of his points come as a result of him running the floor very well and off opportunities created by others. He is very good at filling the open spaces next to the basket and always has his hands ready to receive a pass and score.
But he is less able of creating scoring opportunities for himself, especially against good defenses. And the Celtics are the best defense he has seen this season. Garnett himself might be the worst match-up for Gasol. Garnett is perhaps the only guy in the league agile and quick enough to keep up with Gasol and not let him get his easy baskets by running the floor and also tall and athletic enough not to allow Gasol to score over him. Garnett is also helped by the fact that Gasol doesn’t like to bang his body in the low post, pushing his opponents to create space for his shot. If anything, Gasol shies away from contact even more than Garnett himself (yeah, the Celtics could do without many of those long 2s shot over much shorter defenders).
So what the Celtics are doing is doubling Kobe making sure they don’t let the Lakers superstar beat them and are also rotating on Gasol to deny his opportunistic scores. This leaves the Lakers role players with the long 2 and the 3, but as the Celtics are younger and more athletic than the Spurs, they usually are able to get a hand in the shooter’s face just enough so they don’t get killed by the 3 ball.
Since they can’t dump the ball to Gasol and let him work the low post (like they did with Shaq - I suppose Kobe misses Shaq now, the in-his-prime Shaq, not the fat old one) and Kobe is swarmed by the Celtics, the Lakers depend on their role players’ shooting accuracy to open up the Celtics D. Only their role players are just not experienced or not good enough to rise up to the occasion.
The only time the shots started dropping for the Lakers - during the 1st half of game 4 - you could hear their offense roar while they took a 24p advantage. Suddenly the middle was open for layups and dunks, Odom was playing well for the first time in the series and the Lakers were dominating. But as soon as the shots stopped falling, the Lakers offense screeched to a halt, and the Celtics were able to pull off the greatesc come back in the history of the Finals.
All things considered, unless there are some serious injuries to the Celtics or Kobe and the Lakers role players get insanely hot and keep it up for 3 games in a row, the series should be over tonight or Tuesday the latest. But that doesn’t mean these Lakers won’t win a title. With the Spurs, Mavs and Suns aging faster than Mel Gibson in Forever Young, the West is wide open. The Hornets and Jazz might raise some claims, but the Lakers are more talented overall and their odds look to be much better for next year with Bynum back and an entire training camp and season to allow the team to gel. Especially Bynum might solve the issues that Gasol can’t: a physical low post presence on offense as well as on defense.
