Since the Shaq for Marion trade, all I keep hearing/reading is how Marion “might opt out of his deal in the summer”. Let me break the “news” for you: Marion will not opt out. Not if he has at least one remaining functioning brain cell. His current contract will pay him almost 18 million for 2008-09. That’s guaranteed money. He opts out, he loses 18 million. Nobody in their right mind should kick 18 million dollars.

 

And he’s not about to get a similar or better offer this summer. Most GMs are more fiscally responsible compared to 5-10 years ago. Stern made sure of that by introducing the luxury tax. Marion is a really good player, he has an around game, he can score without having plays called for him, he rebounds very well for his size, he’s very good defensively, but ultimately he is a side-kick. He does not have what it takes to lead a team deep into the playoffs. Before Nash came to the Suns, Marion’s stats were just as impressive but the Suns were stuck in mediocrity. And teams are not so eager to spend close to 20 million per year for a side-kick.

 

Of course, there are exceptions. Namely the Orlando Magic, who pay Rashard Lewis 20 mil/year, which is about 8-10 million too much. Especially considering Rashard is not even the second best player on the Magic behind Dwight. Hedo Turkoglu is. But Rashard was very fortunate that his agent played Orlando’s GM Otis Smith like an accordion. Smith ended up bidding against himself for the right to overpay Lewis. But not all free agents are lucky enough to be coveted by retarded GMs who also happen to have enough cap space to massively overpay for them.

 

 

 

Only this guy would opt out of a nearly
20 million per year contract

 

And even for superstars, opting out is NOT something they’d really consider. People loved to say that Kobe will opt-out if he’s not traded and the team does not improve, or that Garnett will opt-out if he’s not traded to a contender. Are you kidding me ? Kobe would have left almost 48 million on the table if he was to opt out. Garnett had 24.75 million for his last year of contract. Was Garnett going to opt-out ??? Hell, no !! He loves money. He didn’t agree to a trade till he was offered an extension of 3 years and close to 60 million.

 

Same will go for other players with ETOs this summer: Jermaine O’Neal (2 years and almost 45 million left), Elton Brand (1 year, 16.4 million), Allen Iverson (1 year, 20.8 million), not to mention Raef LaFrentz (1 year, 12.7 million) or Stephon Marbury (1 year, 20.8 million).

 

The only exceptions are Gilbert Arenas and Correy Maggette because they’re underpaid (by NBA standards, of course). Arenas is a superstar, yet he stands to make only 12.8 million next season. That is slightly more than Raef LaFrentz. The Wizards will no doubt be willing to offer Arenas a contract of at least 15 million per season even if he comes off knee surgery and hasn’t really played this season. Maggette currently makes 7 million and would make 7 million next season too, despite the fact that he scores 20 points per game, rebounds well for his position, scores at a good FG% and is very aggressive, shooting a lot of FT also with a very good percentage. He will probably receive 10-12 million per season, almost double than his current contract, so it makes sense for him to opt-out.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, February 12th, 2008 at 11:50 am and is filed under General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.