Where did Paxson screw up ?
With the Bulls the second biggest disappointment of the season (thanks only to Miami and their elite suckage), it’s time to ask: “What the hell happened ?”. The blame can not rest (as Skiles tried to place it before getting a nice pink slip from Santa) with the players alone. Even if they’re not playing at their best of abilities, it’s the coach’s job to get the best out of them. And if the players suck, well, it’s the GM that drafted/traded for them. So in the end, John Paxson is ultimately responsible for the way the team plays.
The 2 moves Paxson was most criticized for were the signing of Ben Wallace and the trading of Chandler for the contract of PJ Brown. Of course he also traded Curry away, but there were valid concerns about his health and so far the Bulls seem to be winning that trade even if Tyrus Thomas and Noah have not yet reached their full potential. If they do, it will go down as another major screw-up by Isiah. He also gave up too soon on JR Smith, but with Hinrich, Gordon, Duhon and, of course, coach favorite extraordinaire Adrian Griffin in front of him in the rotation, he wouldn’t have had the opportunity that he had in Denver.
But the problem is not a certain trade but the lack of a clear plan. The question that John Paxson did not have an answer for was: “When are the Bulls supposed to win ?“. Once you have the answer for this question, you can act accordingly and make the necessary moves to help you reach your goal. To cut it short, there are 2 options for a team: Win now or Build for the future.
If you are building for the future, that means trading away whatever players you have that might have some value for teams that are contending for expiring contracts and as many draft picks as possible, especially from teams that you think will end up with really bad records. If you are in “Win now” mode, then you’ll have to sacrifice the immediate and medium term future for short term gains. It’s a risk, but a risk that is worth taking when you’re after the big prize. It’s something Riley has been doing in Miami more than once, and in the end he hit the jackpot when he traded for Shaq and got a title. Now Miami’s future is messed up, but the organization and fans sure don’t regret the trade.
When Paxson signed Ben Wallace it seemed to be a sign that the Bulls were entering the “Win now” mode. The trade for PJ Brown which was in fact a big expiring was one more step in that direction. The next logical step would have been packing one or 2 of the young players with Brown’s contract in a trade for a legit superstar. But Paxson stopped just short of that. Brown’s contract expired and the Bulls were left with little flexibility in the event they wanted to go after Kobe/Garnett in the summer of 2007. Paxson’s indecision left the Bulls with a team that is not really good to contend and not really bad to get much better through the draft unless a superstar falls in their lap midway through the 1st round.
Paxson’s indecision was again on display in the summer when he chose not to fire Skiles and look for a replacement although the signs of Skiles being tuned out were already on display. Furthermore, Skiles substitution patterns, Larry Brown like love for veterans who were hardly better than the rookies whose playtime they were eating and in your face attitude that the players were bound to get tired of should have made it clear to Paxson that Skiles needed to go. Instead of having to do it at Christmas time in a Grinch like manner, he could have done it in the summer. He would have had time to pick up a replacement coach instead of basically wasting 1 year with an interim. As an added bonus, this summer there was one coach who was available who was young, underrated and would have come cheaper than a big name coach: Stan Van Gundy. This is the guy that has the Magic on the 3rd place in the Eastern Conference. Also, Rick Adelman was available and even though he never won a title, he took 2 teams to the finals and his teams usually perform very well.
Of course, the biggest non-action of John Paxson was not trading for Kobe when he was available. His apparent insistence of making Deng untouchable is borderline retarded. And now the values of both Gordon and Deng had to suffer because of the Bulls horrendous start and their own poor play in the first part of the season. So much about selling high. Maybe Paxson talked his own players up to the other GMs in order to increase their value that in the end he convinced himself they were so much better than they really are.
Another mistake was bringing in Joe Smith. It’s not that he’s not been playing well. But right now with Wallace, Smith, Thomas, Noah, Gray and also Nocioni getting time at the 4 cause Deng is taking most of the minutes at the 3, there are too many players competing for minutes at PF and C. Unfortunately Wallace has been getting entitlement minutes despite very poor play. Normally he’d be the odd man out, with Noah and Smith starting and Tyrus Thomas the 1st big off the bench. Nocioni could spend minutes at the 3 (as a back-up to Deng) or 4 (as the undersized chucker that he is) depending on match-ups. Gray should also see some minutes when his size is needed.
Right now the Bulls are stuck with an average team, with a Skiles clone repeating the same message of love for the veterans, with the huge contract of Ben Wallace and his rapidly decaying corpse, a log jam at PF/C and with a bunch of tweeners at the G spots. There are not enough minutes do develop the young players as Jim Boylan insists of using the veterans in hope the team will win just enough games to make the playoffs (if only to get booted in the 1st round) so he can have a chance to get the full time job as head coach. Unfortunately for him, his best chance of making the playoffs and getting the head coaching job might be playing the young players. The fact that he’s letting them rot on the bench while playing Ben Wallace 40 minutes per game so he can get 5 rebounds only proves he’s not a good enough coach to get a head coaching job in the NBA.
And all of this because Paxson did not have the balls to go after Kobe and he fell in love with his own players. Players who may force a sign and trade during the summer after letting it be known that they felt disrespected by the way the Bulls organization conducted the “negotiations” for their new contracts. Well, Paxson will likely have at least this season and the next to fix things. Which is to say the Bulls better be back in contention the next season, so this summer will be crucial. If he keeps shying off from taking chances, it will draw the ire of the fans and, eventually, ownership. And if he can’t find the trade that can really improve the Bulls, he may have to go back to a rebuilding period, especially if Deng and Gordon force their way out. If the Bulls will have to try the lottery again in order to get a superstar, Paxson may find again he woke up too late and missed on a draft supposed to be full of talented players.
Here’s what the Bulls should do. Considering the team has been awful this season, fighting for a playoff spot is pointless, since it will most likely lead to a 1st round sweep. It’s not like the Bulls have any hope of coming out of the East. Since making the playoffs will not help the team much, it might be a better idea to tank the season. The Bulls could package Wallace with Deng and maybe Gordon or Hinrich in order to get an expiring and some picks. Also Joe Smith may be an interesting target for teams looking for help in the front court, especially since he has been playing well and his contract is more than decent. With Wallace, Joe Smith, and 2 or all 3 of Deng, Gordon and Hinrich gone, the Bulls could play a lot of Sefolosha, Tyrus Thomas, Noah and Gray so when summer comes they have a better idea of what kind of players they have.
And if playing the youngs will result in a lot of losses (as Boylan seems to think), then the Bulls will benefit from a high pick in the draft that may just be the superstar they’ve been missing. Preferably a superstar PG. A strong argument for this is what Chris Paul is managing to do right now: leading the Hornets to the best record in the West, ahead of the 3 powerhouses that ruled the conference for the past years (Suns, Mavs, Spurs). And the Hornets weren’t even projected to make the playoffs by most analysts. But as we’ve seen with Jason Kidd and Steve Nash before, a great PG can take a team to the next level all by himself.
On the other hand, if the Bulls give the young players a lot of minutes and win enough games to make the playoffs, then Boylan needs to be fired ASAP and never EVER given any kind of job in the NBA. And Paxson will have some cap-space and (presumably) mid to late picks to work with. Considering Gilbert Arenas will be a free agent, a team with Arenas, Sefolosha, Thomas and Noah would provide enough defense and rebounding to allow Gilbert to focus on providing the offense. And if the Bulls can swap Nocioni for the Suns’ Diaw and maybe in the process obtain the pick Atlanta owes them, Diaw could provide play-making from the SF position, taking the role of point-forward that Pippen used to play. This is just a scenario, but for sure there are many ways the Bulls team can be improved. It’s up to John Paxson to do it though. But if he’s not up to the job, then he’d better start packing his bags, cause he’s gotta go.
