Now I know how Ric Bucher must have felt after guaranteeing that Kobe won’t play another game in a Lakers uniform only to watch him return to the Lakers and reach the finals.

After guaranteeing that Marion, Brand and pretty much everyone else except for Arenas and Maggette will NOT opt-out, Elton Brand and - surprise, surprise - Baron Davis decide to actually opt-out of their rich contracts. I gotta say that stings a little bit.

The question is why did they do this ? Why now ? Next summer a lot more teams (Hawks, Cavs, Warriors, Clippers, perhaps even the Lakers, Grizzlies, Heat, Wolves, Sixers, Sonics, Raptors) might have some or even lots of cap space. This summer is a buyer’s season. Unrestricted FA won’t find too many teams with cap space willing to go into a bidding war. Their best chance remains to either sign with their teams or force a S&T, but that is more complicated to do.

“It preserves options to make the team better,” Falk said. “Clearly, if Elton decided he wanted to simply max out the dollars, he would have stayed in the deal, had a monster year, and a lot more teams will have cap room next year.”

I guess Elton Brand is trying to have his cake and eat it too by not really losing money while forcing the Clippers to make some moves to become better. He clearly wasn’t paying attention in history class, cause if he was, he’d know that a) the Clippers suck; they always have and always will and b) if you want to play for a winner, you don’t opt-out, you ask for a trade; if necessary, you do it through the media. It worked for Kobe, it worked for McGrady, it worked for Garnett - even though technically Garnett didn’t ask for a trade, I think McHale finally traded him when he started fearing for his life after watching Garnett in the eyes at the end of the 3rd consecutive season in which the Wolves missed the playoffs.

Now that Elton Brand has opted-out, wouldn’t the Wizards have been better off not signing Jamison yet and offering him in a S&T for Brand ? I know Arenas said he wants Jamison back, but Elton Brand is much better than Jamison and his game would have fit the Wizards better, giving them an inside weapon and opening things up for Arenas’ 3p shot. Brand would have also helped their defense a lot.

Brand’s best option to win probably remains Miami. A post on TrueHoop suggested a trade (S&T Brand for Beasley, Haslem, Banks) to get Brand in Miami, but I think that would be too much from Miami’s point of view. Brand for Beasley, Banks and Blount would probably be enough for the Clippers. They are the Clippers after all. The Clippers would have to eat the bad contracts of Blount and Banks, but they need a PG anyway, and next summer Blount becomes an expiring. The main thing, though, is that they’d get a young stud back (some might say with superstar potential), who’ll be playing for cheap for the next 4 years. And Sterling likes cheap.

For the Heat this would turn them into contenders. Marion will be playing for a contract so he’ll be on his best behavior while busting his ass on the court, especially on D, Wade and Brand will open things up for each other and give opposing Ds fits. Haslem could be a nice 6th man. And we can figure the Heat will manage to round out their roster with veterans looking for a ring, just like Boston did last summer. For example Adonal Foyle would be a good pick-up as a defensive center, allowing the Heat not to play Zo that much. James Jones could be am option as a 3p shooter to spread the floor. And so on.

As for Baron Davis, despite being the same age as Elton Brand, and perhaps just as good, he was considered far less likely to opt-out because he might not draw the same interest as Brand and because he had to leave more money on the table. The reason Baron Davis might not draw the same interest is because he’s considered injury prone (after playing all 82 games in his first 3 years, he averaged 56 games for 5 seasons, before playing again all 82 games last season, compared to Elton Brand who averaged 76 games per season for his career), and as a general principle big men are more valued than guards.

Some reports claim he’s not getting along with Nellie, but Davis insists he wants to remain with the Warriors. In this case, I can only assume he must have figured out that after having a career year he was highly unlikely to repeat this performance, so he’d better milk it as much as he could. There really is no other explanation I can think of if he really wants to stay with the Warriors and he’s not pushing them to make moves to get better, like Elton Brand is trying to do with the Clippers.

In a bad contract trading frenzy, Memphis traded no 5 pick Kevin Love and Mike Miller plus some filler to Minnesota for no 3 pick OJ Mayo. Out of the 6 contracts traded, 4 were of the bad type. I really don’t remember any trade involving as many bad contracts, but considering who was doing the trading, this isn’t really a surprise.

As for the trade itself, it’s hard to pick a winner between Kevin McHale and Chris Wallace. The Wolves did one good thing: they got Mike Miller. But I can’t agree with John Hollinger on this one (he thinks the Wolves won the trade). I don’t think it was worth sending Mayo for Love, especially since by the trade deadline they’ll be trading Miller to a contender for an expiring and a late 1st round or 2nd round pick. Well, unless someone offers McHale a trully horible contract or 2 that he can’t resist in exchange for Mike Miller. Perhaps something like Jerome James and Jared Jeffries.

I may be biased against undersized not-so-athletic white PF, but historically, who’s the last  6′10 white PF who was worth a high draft pick ? Actually Love ain’t even 6′10. He’s 6′7.75″ without shoes and barely 6′9.5″ with some big ass shoes. So let me rephrase that. Who’s the last 6′8 white PF who was worth a high draft pick ? All the white PF/C who are any good are at least 6′11: Bogut, Biedrins, Bargnani (assuming he stops sucking soon), Kaman. The closest thing I can think of is Nick Collison, but he has a full inch over Love, better wingspan and better standing reach. Considering Collison in his best season so far produced 9.8 ppg and 9.4 reb, I don’t think that’s worth a no 5 pick.

There’s one other thing that makes me no tlike this trade for the Wolves. Here’s a quote from Hollinger himself:

Obviously the Jefferson-Love combo raises some concerns at the defensive end, since neither is especially tall or moves well laterally, but offensively they could be devastating.

This sounds familiar. Now where did I hear these same words ? Oh, right, here:

Additionally, Randolph is a slowfooted, lethargic defender. Pairing him with Curry — another slowfooted, lethargic defender — raises some obvious red flags, particularly since the Knicks defended poorly a year ago. Combining the two would create what is almost certainly the worst defensive frontcourt in basketball.

The trade may not be completed for a few days, but despite my reservations about Randolph’s defense, demeanor and salary, it has to be considered a huge coup for New York.

We all know how that “coup” turned out. Everybody was raving about how 2 low post scorers are better than one, but they’d have been better off searching the word “redundant” in the dictionary.

There is a saying about how if you don’t learn from past mistakes you’re doomed to repeat them, and looks like Kevin McHale didn’t learn shit from any of his past mistakes. And there were lots of them. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he offered Kwame Brown the MLE this summer.

Derrick Rose better be praying the Bulls listen to John Hollinger and DON’T pick him in the draft. Cause if they do, Paxson is getting ready to ruin his career Thabo Sefolosha and Tyrus Thomas style. Despite refusing to acknowledge that Rose is about to be the Bulls’ pick, Paxson already preaches patience with Rose (or Beasley).

“Deron didn’t jump into this overnight. His first year, he didn’t start most of the season. Utah had a little bit longer-range view on him. Whether it’s us or Miami, I think the same thing applies for Derrick.”

Yes, you read that right. Paxson is about to bench a 1st overall pick. Let me just say this again: Paxson is about to bench a 1st overall pick. We’re not talking about a weak draft here. This is a good draft with a few players with star potential. Has that ever happened in the history of the league ?

Has anyone before taken incompetence this far ? I mean other than Isiah Thomas, whose picture is now featured next to “incompetence” in the Encyclopædia Britannica. Paxson is so damn afraid of making a mistake or taking a risk that he’s hurting the team more than if he was to take a calculated risk. He’s so damn cautitous that I suspect he’s wiping his ass before taking a shit. I don’t think I need to mention again how when getting enough play time Tyrus and Thabo put up really nice numbers. And the high picks that did not get play time usually didn’t develop that fast, if at all. Yet, despite all historic evidence to the contrary, he’s about to commit perhaps the biggest mistake so far.

And how does he explain his plan of “we’re not going to play the rookies/young players lots of minutes until they turn 35″ ? He preaches patience. PATIENCE ?? You fucking moron, patience is what YOU should show by insisting your 1st overall pick plays at least 30 minutes per game while allowing him to learn from his mistakes. THAT is patience.

Yet instead of him showing patience with a rookie, he’s asking for patience from the fans. But he might soon find out that the fans patience has run out. Not with the players, but with his ineptitude.

At first it looked as if Skiles was the one who didn’t want to play the rookies. Than, strangely, same thing happened with Boylan, despite Paxson’s public comments about young players getting more playing time in order to develop. If the same thing happens with Vinny Del Negro, there can only be one culprit. I wonder if his contract includes bonuses depending of the number of wins in a season or making the playoffs. If it does, then the Bulls are fucked, cause they have a young team which needs to be developed but the front office guy’s interest would be to sacrifice development for a few extra meaningless (for the team in the long term) wins.

In news that surprised absolutely no one, Allen Iverson will NOT opt-out from him fat contract with the Nuggets. I suppose all those GMs who read the lists possible FA for this summer and were waiting to sign Iverson for the MLE will just have to wait.

Well, maybe they can settle for Marion instead. What’s that ? Marion isn’t opting out either ? That’s such a shame. BSPN almost had me believe that everyone and their grandmother will be opting out this summer.

Speaking of Marion, Pat Riley seems to be playing it smart. He is unwilling to give him a 39 million 3 years contract and is offering a 30 million 3 year contract. Otis Smith, are you taking notes ? You’re supposed to offer less than the player/agent is asking for, not more.

There are plenty of reasons for not giving Marion a big bunch of money. Marion is 30, his game is based a lot on his athleticism which might soon leave him, he has a lot of mileage already, his stats have diminished over the last 2 years so he looks to be on the decline and he was never able to lead a team despite putting up impressive stats even when Nash wasn’t there. To boot, Marion is kind of a whiner, he wasn’t happy in Phoenix playing with Nash so he could soon become sour in Miami and demand a trade. Taking all these into account, a 31 year old declining Marion at 10 million per season would be much more tradeable than at 13 million per season. All these are not to say that Marion isn’t a very good player. He is, and it would be great to have more players with his athleticism, durability and selfless play. But he apparently is mentally weak and he craves more recognition (and money) than he deserves.

Looks like Riles, despite making some mistakes as GM earlier in his career, has learned his lesson. He has been pretty good in the draft and I have to consider him an elite GM at the moment. We’ll see how he does in this draft, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he somehow managed to land Lebron or Bosh in 2010 and had the Heat contending for a title by 2011.

Well, it was bound to happen. I expected it to be a little classy, but  I guess that’s all you can expect from a big baby. I’m talking of course about Shaq’s latest diss on Kobe:

Can we just call him The Big Grudge ?

Knowing how big Shaq’s ego is, him gloating over Kobe losing the Finals was totally expected. And I could understand a jab or 2, like a “Kobe couldn’t do it without me” thrown here and there. But an entire song dedicated to dissing Kobe ? Shaq acts like a dumped ex-girlfriend who just won’t get over it. Even worse, he basically admits that the reports of him paying women to keep them quiet were right, since he still has beef with Kobe for ratting on him.

He needs to stop acting as if he’s the one who just won a title. Especially since the Lakers still have a very good team and might just win a couple of titles in the next few years, which would make him look like an idiot. Not that it would be the first time he’s left looking like an idiot:

All the comparisons stop right here. It’s over. Not that it ever was that close anyway. Kobe Bryant is NOT the next Michael Jordan. He’s not better than Michael Jordan. He’s not as good as Michael Jordan. In fact, he’s nowhere close to being as good as Jordan was.

And if the staggering amount of statistical data was not enough, Kobe’s choke job in these finals, combined with the lose gun job from 2004 have shown that he is not able to dominate the game and impose his will on the outcome the way Jordan did. At least not when it really matters - on the big stage: Jordan played in 6 finals and got 6 titles and 6 finals MVPs. So far Kobe played 5 finals, won 3 (as the side kick) and lost 2 (1 as the man) and got no finals MVP. So until Kobe proves himself in at least a couple of finals, this conversation is over.

He will do what it takes to help his team win, including breaking your back with a 3 or with a cheap-shot. Opposing fans hate him, but he’s the kind of role player you like to have on your team: meet James Posey. Just don’t get too close to him or he might draw an offensive foul on you.

While everyone is talking about Pierce’s Finals MVP, Garnett’s DPOY and Ray Allen’s record tying seven 3-pointers, it’s time to give props to a guy who plays more villain than hero: James Posey.  At various times during the finals Garnett, Pierce and Ray Allen failed to deliver in the crunch. But he kept stepping up and making big plays. He was completely unfazed by the importance of the moment - a thing that comes with experience and with having already won a title (with the Heat in 2006).

It seemed that every time the Celtics needed a back breaking 3, Posey was lurking in his corner. Except for game 1, he was 58% from the 3p line. Pierce and Ray Allen got a lot of credit for their defense on Kobe, but people forget Posey played great defense on Kobe as well. His team defense was just as good as he kept drawing charges when the Lakers tried to take the ball to the rim. When the Celtics fumbled the ball (usually on a defensive rebound) he always was in the right place to secure the ball and avoid a costly turnover. In fact, except for game 1 when he played poor and had 2 TO, he only had 0.6 TO per game.

True, many times he acts like a thug - just ask the Bulls fans, he cheapshoted Hinrich, Deng and Tyrus Thomas. Also on most of the offensive fouls he draws he’s actually undercutting the offensive player and he should be just called for the blocking foul instead. He does flop but to be fair, he doesn’t attempt to “sell the foul” a la Ginobili, Parker or Vujacic. The guy is old school tough: he does hit others, but when he gets hit, he keeps playing like nothing happened.

Overall with the big 3s, the defense, the little things that he does to help his team win and with the toughness that sometimes spills into thuggery, Posey reminds me a lot of Robert Horry. And after winning a title with the Heat, he’s now with the Celtics who may have 2-3 years of high level play in them, so expect to see his 2 colors mouth guard a lot in the playoffs and don’t be surprised if he ends up with 4 or 5 rings won with 3 or 4 different teams.

Despite starting out as favorites, except for the 1st half of game 4, the Lakers have been unable to play their game against the Celtics. More specifically the league’s 3rd best offense (when accounting for pace) found itself in trouble against the league’s best defense. The Lakers defense was good, holding the Celtics 3p below their regular season average, but the Lakers themselves only managed to score 90.5ppg compared to the 108.5 they scored during the regular season or the 99.2 scored during the playoffs.

The Lakers offense ineptitude is a little bit baffling considering they have the best scorer in the game, a center that can score and enough shooters to keep a defense honest, and they are coached by arguably the best coach ever. Of course a lot of credit should be given to the Celtics D, but how did they manage to basically shut down the Lakers when the Lakers have so many offensive weapons ? That’s even more staggering considering that the Spurs, the 3rd best defensive team in the league, were nowhere near as good as the Celtics in defending the Lakers. The Lakers-Spurs series was also a low scoring one, but this was mainly because the Spurs slowed down the pace as much as they could, while the Celtics like to push the ball on offense to generate easy points. So what are the Celtics doing different from the Spurs ?

From the Lakers role players, only Radmanovic and Farmar have lower FG% against the Lakers than against the Spurs - and as a result they got less minutes . The rest of Kobe’s supporting cast has noticeably better FG% compared to the Spurs series: Gasol .511 against the Celtics up from .446 against the Spurs, Odom .500 up from .404, Fisher .429 up from .375, Vujacic .406 up from .303. The Spurs defended the 3p line fiercely. The Celtics, perhaps not so much: the Lakers role players (other than Fisher) are also shooting better from the 3p line - including Radmanovic and Farmar: Vujacic .438 up from .316, Radmanovic .389 up from .273, Farmar .556 up from .417. One might think of pointing to Odom and/or Gasol and blame them for the Lakers ineptitude, but their numbers are very close to what they averaged against the Spurs.

So if the shooters are shooting better and the inside players are the same what’s killing the Lakers ? The short answer would be: Kobe Bryant. After all, he’s the superstar, the leader, and the responsibility is all his. And his numbers have dropped compared to the Spurs series: points per game down to 26.8 from 29.2 (despite getting more minutes per game), turnovers up to 3.25 from 2.4, FG% down to .432 from .533, 3p% down to .200 from .333 and even the FT% is down to .784 from .909.

This drop is caused because unlike the Spurs who let Bowen single cover Kobe a lot, the Celtics are doubling Kobe a lot. Kobe was a scorer and passer in the first 2 rounds (over 33 ppg, with 6.3 and 7.2 assists). Against the Spurs, he was more of a scorer than a passer (29.2 ppg, only 3.8 ast). The Celtics took away more of his scoring forcing him to be a passer (26.8 ppg, 6.3 ast).

But how can a defense afford to double him so much when the Lakers supposedly have a low post presence and shooters to spread the floor ? Well, perhaps Gasol is not really that much of a low post presence. He is in fact a very good offensive player - someone who scored over 20 ppg over the course of an entire season while shooting over 50% is no slouch. But the numbers might be a little misleading. He is a very opportunistic player (not a bad thing) so many of his points come as a result of him running the floor very well and off opportunities created by others. He is very good at filling the open spaces next to the basket and always has his hands ready to receive a pass and score.

But he is less able of creating scoring opportunities for himself, especially against good defenses.  And the Celtics are the best defense he has seen this season.  Garnett himself might be the worst match-up for Gasol. Garnett is perhaps the only guy in the league agile and quick enough to keep up with Gasol and not let him get his easy baskets by running the floor and also tall and athletic enough not to allow Gasol to score over him.  Garnett is also helped by the fact that Gasol doesn’t like to bang his body in the low post, pushing his opponents to create space for his shot. If anything, Gasol shies away from contact even more than Garnett himself (yeah, the Celtics could do without many of those long 2s shot over much shorter defenders).

So what the Celtics are doing is doubling Kobe making sure they don’t let the Lakers superstar beat them and are also rotating on Gasol to deny his opportunistic scores. This leaves the Lakers role players with the long 2 and the 3, but as the Celtics are younger and more athletic than the Spurs, they usually are able to get a hand in the shooter’s face just enough so they don’t get killed by the 3 ball.

Since they can’t dump the ball to Gasol and let him work the low post (like they did with Shaq - I suppose Kobe misses Shaq now, the in-his-prime Shaq, not the fat old one) and Kobe is swarmed by the Celtics, the Lakers depend on their role players’ shooting accuracy to open up the Celtics D. Only their role players are just not experienced or not good enough to rise up to the occasion.

The only time the shots started dropping for the Lakers - during the 1st half of game 4 - you could hear their offense roar while they took a 24p advantage. Suddenly the middle was open for layups and dunks, Odom was playing well for the first time in the series and the Lakers were dominating. But as soon as the shots stopped falling, the Lakers offense screeched to a halt, and the Celtics were able to pull off the greatesc come back in the history of the Finals.

All things considered, unless there are some serious injuries to the Celtics or Kobe and the Lakers role players get insanely hot and keep it up for 3 games in a row, the series should be over tonight or Tuesday the latest. But that doesn’t mean these Lakers won’t win a title. With the Spurs, Mavs and Suns aging faster than Mel Gibson in Forever Young, the West is wide open. The Hornets and Jazz might raise some claims, but the Lakers are more talented overall and their odds look to be much better for next year with Bynum back and an entire training camp and season to allow the team to gel. Especially Bynum might solve the issues that Gasol can’t: a physical low post presence on offense as well as on defense.

Otis Smith, also known as the guy who gave Rashard fucking Lewis 20 million per season, was offered an extension by the Orlando Magic. According to ESPN:

It was a reward for building a team that won the franchise’s first division title in 12 years, and advanced in the playoffs for the first time since that last title.

I may be alone on this, but to me mortgaging the franchise’s future for a division title should’t be rewarded with an extension. The Magic have wasted their huge salary cap last summer yet they still miss a true power forward, a true point guard and a good shooting guard. That’s 3 positions out of 5. Worst of all, the guy they spent all that money on isn’t even the 2nd best player on the team, being outplayed by Hedo Turkoglu, who’s paid about 1/3 of the money Rashard makes.

Even worse, Otis Smith’s sole good decision during the summer, the hiring of Stan Van Gundy, was  forced by Billy Donovan refusing the job, as Stan was not Otis’ first choice.

So be sure that in a few years when the Magic are way over the cap and stuck in mediocrity and when Dwight Howard will ask for a trade, I will be the first one to say “I told you so”.

Dumars finally found out what the rest of the league already knew. Namely that Flip Saunders is not a good postseason coach. His teams are usually great during the regular season but they choke in the playoffs.

Betting against history is NEVER a good thing, and that’s exactly what Dumars did. History won again as Saunders took a team that went to the finals on consecutive times - winning once - and was unable to get them past the Eastern Conference Finals. This despite having the best overall winning percentage in 2006, the best winning percentage in the East (4th overall) in 2007, and 2nd overall in 2008.

Who will the Pistons name as their next head-coach ? If they’re smart, they will pick Terry Porter despite already granting the Suns 2 interviews with him. Or they could chose from a number of young assistant coaches.

Meanwhile there already are people painting Saunders as a candidate for the Suns job. If the Suns are smart and they paid any attention in history class, they will stay clear of him. The past 24 NBA titles are shared between KC Jones, Pat Riley, Chuck Daly, Phil Jackson, Rudy Tomjanovic, Gregg Popovich and Larry Brown. That’s 7 coaches that won the title in the past 24 years. In the past 17 years, with Phil Jackson  and Gregg Popovich dominating, there were only 3 other coaches that got a title: Larry Brown (who might be considered some sort of a fluke as the Pistons met a completely dysfunctional Lakers team), Rudy T and Riley.

In other words, coaches that have been recycled over and over and over again don’t win titles. Most coaches that won a title did so in their first 4-5 years on the job, so if your goal is winning a title, you have better chances if you try with a new young coach than with someone like Flip Saunders. Or Doug Collins for that matter.